Monetary Board Keeps Rates Steady

Philippine stocks settled in negative territory in the week ending September 24th, as local market players weighed in weakness in China’s manufacturing sector for the current month, as well as the negative outlook for the country’s growth this year.

The shortened trading week saw the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) plunging 3.01 percent, settling below the 7,000-mark again after losing 214.36 points in total, to close at 6,917.55. The broader All Shares Index (PSE:ALL) also suffered a 2.1 percent drop, giving up 85.52 points to close at 3,991.08.

Last week, Philippine indexes reversed their rally the week before, after the market absorbed the latest manufacturing PMI from China showing another month of contraction further down economists’ expectations. Official data from Markit / Caixin survey saw a 47 reading for the Chinese manufacturing PMI, down from 47.3 in August, and missing consensus of 47.5.

On Monday, the PSEi fell, following Wall Street’s decline the Friday before. On Tuesday, the 30-stock benchmark fell even further after Manila-based Asian Development Bank cut the country’s GDP growth prospects to six percent, down from the earlier projection of 6.4 percent.

Wednesday saw a huge fallout, as China, the country’s biggest trading partner, recorded another drop in their manufacturing PMI. On Thursday, the market ended mixed as the Monetary Board decided to keep the policy rates unchanged, following its meeting and amidst global volatility and falling domestic inflation.

Last week, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Monetary Board decided to keep the interest unchanged for both borrowing and lending rates, as well as special deposit accounts.

Overnight borrowing or reverse repurchase facility and overnight lending or repurchase facility were held steady at four and six percent, respectively. Special deposit account rates and reserve requirement ratio were also maintained.

“The Monetary Board’s decision is based on its assessment of the dynamics and risks in the inflation environment over the policy horizon,” BSP Governor Amando Tetangco, Jr. announced during the Monetary Policy Press Briefing held last September 24th.

Tetangco warned that inflation targets for the year may not be reached, with an upside from the worse-than-expected El Nino phenomenon and pending petitions for power rate adjustments.

On Thursday, market performance was mixed, following the announcement. Mining and oil and industrials rallied, while financials managed a slight gain. On the other hand, holding firms declined, while services retreated moderately, while property stocks slid by a few points.

The Philippine Stock Exchange was closed on Friday in observance of the Eidul Adha (Feast of the Sacrifice) of the Moslem community.

In general, publicly-listed firms lost 1.88 percent of their total market capitalization over the week, with property firms losing the most by 5.69 percent, at a combined value of Php 13.44 trillion.

Foreign funds continue to withdraw from the local equity market to safer havens, with net outflows of Php 2.345 billion.

On Thursday, total market value was Php 7.08 billion, slightly down from the Php 7.6 billion the day before, to a total market turnover of Php 28.6 billion.

 

 

Comments

  1. FED Interest rate most likely to be hiked on June 15
    ARCHIVE 19 May, 2016
    Stock Market Today by Shailesh Saraf – 19th May 2016
    Indian Market Outlook:
    FED interest rate most likely to be hiked from 25 bps to 50 bps in the scheduled June 15 FED meeting. On the backdrop of confirmation of US FED rate hike expectation in the June meeting, Nifty after testing its resistance at 7950 on 17th may is opening 30 points gap down from yesterday’s close at 7850 today.
    The FOMC meeting minutes that were announced yesterday revealed that, “most Fed officials saw a June hike likely if economy warranted.” Moreover, the US 3 month T bill yield has been steadily rising since the last few days rising from 0.18% on 5th to 0.30% made on 18th may , this spurt is yield was last seen on 6th November 2015 which was an indication to the last rate hike occurred in December. A similar phenomenon is occurring now which gives clear indication that there might be rate hike in the June Meeting.

    International Market Outlook
    The greenback- Dollar ripped higher after the minutes revealed that, “most Fed officials saw a June hike likely if economy warranted.” Oil prices fell on Thursday, pulled down by rising U.S. crude inventories, a stronger dollar and surging output from Iran to Europe and Asia.
    You can check the details from here
    https://www.dynamiclevels.com/en/shailesh-saraf-stock-market-today-190516

  2. Stock Market Today by Shailesh Saraf – 20th May 2016
    Indian Market Outlook:
    The SEBI, in a meeting at 2 pm IST yesterday finalized the KYC norms for the P-Note participants which triggered the selloff of 100 points. FED interest rate most likely to be hiked from 25 bps to 50 bps in the scheduled June 15 FED meeting, further confirmation will come if 3 month US treasury yield trades above 36 bps. Open interest data shows 2 times the average sells in options yesterday.
    The open interest data, SEBI’s P-Note decision along with FED rate hike expectation in June 15 might put further selling pressure in Nifty. However, the short term trend would be sell only if Small Cap trades below 5090. Nifty is opening 12 points gap up at 7790 from yesterday’s close of 7778 at 8:15 am IST.

    International Market Outlook
    The greenback, still 3 percent lower on the year, has risen this week against most currencies after Fed officials said in their meeting minutes that they could raise rates as early as June. New York Fed President William Dudley reaffirmed that view Thursday when he said the Fed could hike rates in June or July if economic data improves as expected. Brexit, or the British vote on whether to remain in the European Union, is one reason economists think the Fed could put off its rate hike until after June. The Brexit vote is June 23, about a week after the Fed meets.
    For details check
    https://www.dynamiclevels.com/en/shailesh-saraf-stock-market-today-200516

  3. Nifty expected to trade in a range of 7700 to 7950
    ARCHIVE 23 May, 2016
    Stock Market Today by Shailesh Saraf – 23rd May 2016
    Indian Market Outlook:
    FED interest rate most likely to be hiked from 25 bps to 50 bps in the scheduled June 15 FED meeting, further confirmation will come if 3 month US treasury yield trades above 36 bps. The open interest data, SEBI’s P-Note decision along with FED rate hike expectation in June 15 might put further selling pressure in Nifty. However, the short term trend would be sell only if Small Cap trades below 5090. Nifty is opening 20 points gap up at 7783 from yesterday’s close of 7763 at 8:05 am IST.

    International Market Outlook
    Asian shares rose on Monday after a solid session on Wall Street, while the dollar held near recent highs against major rivals as investors bet that the U.S. Federal Reserve was on track to raise rates sooner rather than later. Finance policymakers at the G7 agreed to avoid competitive devaluation, but shunned a call by Japan to stimulate economies with fiscal measures while seeking “balanced” fiscal, monetary and structural reform policies to support global growth.
    Markets have started to entertain the prospect of a near term U.S. rate hike after last week’s release of Fed meeting minutes showed that policymakers weren’t shying away from raising interest rates as early as next month. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will appear at a panel event hosted by Harvard University on Friday. Fed branch presidents including those from San Francisco, St. Louis, Dallas, Minneapolis are also slated to speak earlier in the week.
    For more details see here https://www.dynamiclevels.com/en/shailesh-saraf-stock-market-today-230516

  4. Stock Market Today by Shailesh Saraf – 25th May 2016
    Indian Market Outlook:
    US New home sales data which was above its 8 year high displayed the strength in the US economy which increased the likeliness of FED interest rate hike from 25 bps to 50 bps in the scheduled June 15 FED meeting, further confirmation will come if 3 month US treasury yield trades above 36 bps. However, the short term trend would be sell only if Small Cap trades below 5055. Nifty is opening 60 points gap up at 7822 from yesterday’s close of 7762 at 8:15 am IST.

    International Market Outlook
    Asian Markets along with European and American peers are trading in green Wednesday morning on the backdrop of an upbeat US home sales data yesterday which displayed inherent strength in the US economy coming back above the pre 2008 levels. The chances of June rate hike are increased further. Markets would eye Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech, who is also due to speak on Friday, which is also the concluding day for the Ise-Shima G7 Summit being held in Japan. Once the G7 summit is out of the way, markets will be focusing whether Tokyo may look to postpone a sales tax hike and implement fiscal stimulus steps. Elsewhere, “Brexit” themes continued to sway the pound, which soared overnight when the latest poll showed strong support for Britain to remain in the European Union.
    For more details see https://www.dynamiclevels.com/en/shailesh-saraf-stock-market-today-250516

  5. Stock Market Today by Shailesh Saraf – 26th May 2016
    Indian Market Outlook:
    Yesterday, open interest in options showed 4 times buy which is actually the short covering in calls before the May contract’s expiry today. EURO zone finance ministers have approved 10 billion dollar bailout fund for the sick Greece economy. The likeliness of FED interest rate hike from 25 bps to 50 bps in the scheduled June 15 FED meeting is increasing which will be further confirmed if 3 month US treasury yield trades above 36 bps. However, the short term trend would be sell only if Small Cap trades below 5055. Nifty is opening 20 points gap up at 7963 from yesterday’s close of 7943 at 8:25 am IST.

    International Market Outlook
    Asian Markets along with European and American peers are trading in green Thursday morning. The rally in risk assets came even as investors were preparing themselves for monetary tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve as early as next month. Investors will be looking to comments by Fed Chair Janet Yellen at a Harvard University event on Friday, though her speech scheduled for June 6, after new U.S. payrolls data comes out, would be even more crucial.
    To know more go to https://www.dynamiclevels.com/en/shailesh-saraf-stock-market-today-260516

  6. Nifty enters new trading zone above 8000

    Stock Market Today by Shailesh Saraf – 27th May 2016
    Indian Market Outlook:
    Yesterday, Nifty futures expired on a highly bullish note at 8070. Nifty is opening gap up at 8103 at 8:25 am IST. Today we have India’s largest PSU Bank announcing its quarterly results at 1 PM IST which would set the further tone for the Indian Markets.

    International Market Outlook
    Asian Markets along with European and American peers are trading in green Thursday morning. Yellen will make her first public appearance in nearly two months at a ceremony when she receives the Radcliffe Medal from Harvard University’s Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study on Friday afternoon. Yellen could provide further hints on the pace of the Fed’s long-term rate path in a Question-And-Answer session with Harvard economics professor Gregory Mankiw after the presentation. Over the last two months, Yellen has reiterated that the Fed will raise rates gradually in the current cycle, amid widespread volatility in global financial markets and persistently low inflation. Two other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policymakers, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard and Fed governor Jerome Powell, sent indications on Thursday that the Fed could raise rates shortly.

    To know more go to https://www.dynamiclevels.com/en/shailesh-saraf-stock-market-today-270516

  7. Nifty continues to be in a BUY trend

    Stock Market Today by Shailesh Saraf – 30th May 2016
    Indian Market Outlook:
    FII’s have been net buyers worth Rs.3270 Cr in Index Options and worth Rs.2162 Cr in Index Futures. The rally in the markets has been triggered mainly due to the Global markets rallying last week which was triggered by, firstly, the BREXIT polls that suggested majority willing to stay in the Eurozone and secondly, the bailout of the Greece banks by the Eurozone to the extent of 12 Billion Euros. As per SGX today at 8:30 am IST, Nifty Share Price is expected to open at 8217.

    International Market Outlook
    Asian Markets along with European and American peers are trading in green Monday morning. Yellen in her speech on Friday remarked that the FED rate hike could be happening soon in the coming months, looking at the ripe situation of the US economy with good jobs and inflation data. The polls on the BREXIT suggested that the majority is willing to stay in the EUROZONE which has been one of the major triggers for the markets to stay positive. The markets would be keenly waiting for the 15 June FED meeting and the BREXIT which is scheduled on 23 June.
    For more details go to https://www.dynamiclevels.com/en/shailesh-saraf-stock-market-today-300516

  8. Nifty BUY trend continues, 8336 on the cards

    Stock Market Today by Shailesh Saraf – 30th May 2016
    Indian Market Outlook:
    FII continued their buying spree across all segments in the Indian markets after buying worth Rs.15747 Cr in Index Options, worth Rs.8474 Cr in Index Futures and worth Rs.1095 Cr in the cash segment in last 5 days.
    Nifty the Indian benchmark index saw consolidation at 8200 levels after 7720 the low made on Tuesday 24th, the rally of more than 500 points in four trading sessions with the breakout of critical level of 8000 and the huge buying of FII and PRO buy in future and options which suggests that 8336 are in the cards to come.

    International Market Outlook
    The Asian markets continue their rally after trading in green today as well. The US markets were closed yesterday for Memorial Day, has also given a breakout of 2100 levels in future index. Non-farm payroll data which is one of the major data events is on Friday which would bring in further stimulus for the FED rate hike scheduled for the June 15 meeting. Traders would also keenly watch the developments around the BREXIT which is scheduled for the 23rd June. FII Index Future Open Interest for the Week FII Options Open Interest for the Week.
    For more details go to https://www.dynamiclevels.com/en/shailesh-saraf-stock-market-today-310516

  9. Nifty upbeat, caution if US Treasury Yield trades above 36bps

    Stock Market Today by Shailesh Saraf – 1st June 2016
    Indian Market Outlook:
    FII continued their buying spree across all segments in the Indian markets after buying worth Rs.16126 Cr in Index Options, worth Rs.9073 Cr in Index Futures and worth Rs.981 Cr in the cash segment in last 6 days. The huge buying of FII and PRO buy in future and options suggests that 8336 are in the cards for Nifty in the coming days. SGX Nifty is trading at 8205 at 8:40 am IST. Nifty is expected to open at same levels i.e. a gap up of 11 points.

    International Market Outlook
    China PMI announced today morning came a tad higher at 50.1 from the expectation of 50.0. Crude Oil prices are under pressure on Wednesday morning today’s OPEC meeting would set the tone for further price direction for crude. It is expected that the OPEC meeting scheduled on 2nd June would be to decide on the market share for the Oil production countries rather than putting control on the production levels. Moreover, the concerns over the slowing demand from the Chinese economy are pushing crude further down.
    For more details go to https://www.dynamiclevels.com/en/shailesh-saraf-stock-market-today-010616

  10. Nifty holds strong, BUY at every correction
    ARCHIVE 02 Jun, 2016
    Stock Market Today by Shailesh Saraf – 2nd June 2016
    Indian Market Outlook:
    We recommend a buy in Nifty at 8120 with a stop of 8100. The huge buying of FII and PRO in future and options suggests that 8336 are in the cards for Nifty in the coming days. SGX Nifty is trading at 8182 at 8:30 am IST. Nifty is expected to open at same levels i.e. a gap down of 15 points.

    International Market Outlook
    Asian shares were steady on Thursday as Wall Street gave up modest gains. This was after the latest batch of U.S. data provided few clues on when the Federal Reserve might raise rates, while a resurgent yen pressured equity markets in Japan. The yen strengthened earlier today after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he was planning to delay a scheduled sales tax hike by two-and-a-half years, amid ongoing weakness in the economy.
    To read the full report , go to https://www.dynamiclevels.com/en/shailesh-saraf-stock-market-today-020616

  11. Indian Market Outlook:
    We recommend a buy in Nifty at 8178 with a stop of 8150. The huge buying of FII and PRO in future and options suggests that 8336 are in the cards for Nifty in the coming days. SGX Nifty is trading at 8264 at 8:15 am IST. Nifty share price is expected to open at same levels i.e. a gap up of 20 points.

    International Market Outlook
    Asian shares held steady on Friday as investors wait for U.S. payrolls data that could add to or detract from the case for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this month or in July. The data will be followed by a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Monday, the last chance for the Fed to communicate with markets before it begins a blackout period ahead of its policy meeting on June 14-15. In recent weeks global markets have been puzzling over what the Fed would do in the near term as relatively upbeat U.S. data have been undermined by a still-sluggish global economy and worries over the risk of Britain exiting the European Union. OPEC failed to agree a clear oil-output strategy on Thursday as Iran insisted on steeply raising its own production, though Saudi Arabia’s new oil minister promised not to flood the market. Yesterday, the ECB’s Governing Council left interest rates unchanged ahead of the launch of a highly-anticipated corporate bond buying program next week, as inflation continues to remain stubbornly low.
    To read more go to https://www.dynamiclevels.com/en/shailesh-saraf-stock-market-today-030616

  12. Nifty continues BUY trend, RBI policy awaited
    ARCHIVE 06 Jun, 2016
    Stock Market Today by Shailesh Saraf – 6th June 2016
    Indian Market Outlook:
    Today the markets would eagerly wait for the RBI policy statement to be announced tomorrow at 11:00 AM IST. This would lead to a consolidation phase for the day. We recommend a buy in Nifty share price at 8178 with a stop of 8150. The huge buying of FII and PRO in future and options suggests that 8336 are in the cards for Nifty in the coming days. SGX Nifty is trading at 8243 at 8:35 am IST. Nifty is expected to open at same levels i.e. a gap up of 10 points.

    International Market Outlook
    The US pay rolls data surprised the Investor expectation as it showed that the US economy added only 68K jobs in the last month indication the slowdown in the global markets thereby reducing the chances of any near term rate hike. However, the US indices are holding strong at 2100 levels. Asian and European peers hold steady.
    To read more go to https://www.dynamiclevels.com/en/shailesh-saraf-stock-market-today-060616

  13. Nifty awaits RBI monetary policy today
    ARCHIVE 07 Jun, 2016
    Stock Market Today by Shailesh Saraf – 7th June 2016
    Indian Market Outlook:
    Today the markets would eagerly wait for the RBI policy statement to be announced today at 11:00 AM IST. Analysts expect RBI to keep the Interest Rates unchanged at 6.5% but the key lookout is whether Rajan would accept the extension of his tenure as RBI chief. This would lead to a consolidation phase until the policy announcement. Market would be deciding on its next course post RBI announcements today. SGX Nifty is trading at 8269 at 8:35 am IST. Nifty is expected to open at same levels i.e. a gap up of 38 points.

    International Market Outlook
    Asian Indices rallied, testing 5 week highs on Tuesday morning after FED chair Jennet Yellen in a speech yesterday said US rate hike would indeed be a gradual process not giving any reference to timings. She gave a positive assessment of the US economy and warned on giving too much weightage on one single data referring to the weak payrolls data last week. On the other hand the BREXIT polls, published by the Telegraph UK, that came in yesterday show an inclination of the British people towards exiting the EU. The FED’s policy statement due on 15th June and the BREXIT final outcome due on 23rd June would set the market tone going forward.
    To read more go to https://www.dynamiclevels.com/en/shailesh-saraf-stock-market-today-070616

  14. Anonymous says:

    Profit booking in Nifty seen ahead of BREXIT
    Indian Market Outlook:
    Today morning, SGX Nifty is trading at 8216 at 8:35 am IST. As per SGX, Nifty is expected to open at 8216 i.e. at a gap down of 14 points. FII and PRO combined have sold 4411500 shares in Index options yesterday signaling profit booking.
    International Market Outlook:
    The Asian markets along with European and American peers are holding strong too suggesting a global strength in the Indices, however markets have seen a profit booking from the higher levels of S&P at 8120. S&P has been trading in a small range of 2120 to 2106 for last 4 days. The markets are eyeing BREXIT and the US FED meet due on 23rd June and 15th June respectively. The outcomes of these events would be very crucial in deciding the further course of the markets.
    More on: https://www.dynamiclevels.com/en/shailesh-saraf-stock-market-today-100616

  15. Stock Market Today by Shailesh Saraf – 13th June 2016

    Brexit Rocks International Markets

    The Indian Markets are slated to open gap down by 70 points at 8125, as SGX Nifty at 8.43 am. This indicates the panic which will also affect our Markets. The FII & Pro combined have sold above 100000 options in the past 3 trading sessions. If the Markets trade below the low of 8150, which is 2 weeks low, the short term trend will turn to sell.

    International Markets have collapsed as many as 3 surveys are indicating a higher probability of BREXIT. The Markets in the past few days had believed that the “Remain” campaign of the BREXIT would prevail over the “Leave” campaign. The latest Polls have come with a rude shock and the GBP/USD collapsed downwards by 150 ticks, which is an average one day movement, in 15 mins. This nervousness is bound to continue till 23rd June, when the Referendum takes place. Dax has touched its one month low falling 500 points in the past one week. The Asian Markets are reflecting this mood this morning.

    More on – https://www.dynamiclevels.com/en/shailesh-saraf-stock-market-today-130616

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