DMN NOV 10 Pacquiao Margarito blood comes early to the PSE!

PSEI 4,197.57 |DOWN! -68.88 | -1.61%
Value Php 6.7B

Dow Jones 11,346.75 -60.09 (-0.53%)
S&P 500 1,213.40 -9.85 (-0.81%)
Nasdaq 2,562.98 -17.07 (-0.66%)

The once almighty dollar rises once more after the honeymoon period of QE2 wears off.

Technical gobbledygook from cnbc says that technical reason for the pause could be that the S&P 500, which traded as high as 1,226 on Tuesday, was closing in on 1,228, which represents “a 2/3 retracement of the entire bear market dating back to fall 2007.”

Beyond that, there really was no reason for a continued drop except the impending sword of Damocles threatening either a prolonged stagflation inflation depression or total market crash. Nothing new in this day and age.

Locally, a few attempts to come out of the safety of our roofs to see if the sun was shining was met with heavy non-stop downpour. It was more than one hour of snowball avalanche selling that saw our index down by 94 points, or way below 4200. Thankfully, some brave souls swept some blood off the streets to make the index close by 68 points down “only”, at 4197. That’s a 200 point fall in only a few days. No real reason for this. Last time I checked, PNoy is still alive, nothing to attribute this fall to except for keeping up with the global correction coupled with persistent Terror Threats in PH (don’t use RP anymore, it’s ISO standard to use PH so says the inquirer!)

Today’s top index gainers saw only three brave stocks sing their bullish songs: JFC TEL SMPH, which combined did not even contribute 3 gained PSEi points.

Worst index losers were MBT (-13 for PSEi), AGI (-7 for PSEi). AGI at one point lost 10 points for the index with its intraday drop to 9.80, from previous close of 11.42. This is continued selling, and the first sign of reversal as it closes back 10.80. MBT did not recover as much, closing near the lows at 75. Other index losers were EDC DMC BDO AP FPH MER.

CEB manages to find its way in the top 20 gainers as it claws back to IPO price at 125.10, this was joined by EG 80?? (on 10 shares only), MUSX 08, ORE 3.79, PNX 7.35.

Lots of losers scrambling for top spot: AB 40, VUL .80 APX 4.55, UPM .016, DMC 35.05, SLI 2.01, MBT 75,

IP tries for 1.80 but fails at 1.70 as its other company nears IPO.

ALCO .24 or .23 the other day and is now .193.

MEG 2.70 now sinks to 2.58!

ASIASEC once again perforates the LC crowd with its antiriot sub machine gun to close it at .375.

So where to now? back to your questions at hand:

Q: is this the beginning of the bear?
A: I don’t think so.  I’m looking at early next year for that

Q:How far can we go (down)?
A: There is a kind of parallel secondary trendline support and we’re at it.  This is parallel to the super duper main uptrend support (created since march 2009), of around 3750.  Again, an uptrendline slopes upward, hence support actually changes and adjusts depending on the time duration a stock/index price takes to get there.

Q: So we’ll get to 3750? (or near that uptrendline)
A:Maybe yes sometime in the future but I feel we’ll range trade between 4200 to 4400 first.

A: no more Q’s.  Final word, I believe we are setting up the stage for another final violent rally come December to January, drop down from there, retest that new high, then finally correct to bear (maybe).  Oh, and S&P500 may rally to 1330 soon.

By the way, November 16 is a holiday!

FOREIGN BUYING Php 3,525,238,140.88
FOREIGN SELLING Php 3,663,989,553.18
TING-DING-DING-DING-ROUND 12! NFS by about 100M only. now fancy that. here are the culprits:

NFB: BPI 113M, SECB 44M, PNB 12M, RLC 20M, SMPH 67M, CEB 226M, ICT 58M,

NFS: BDO 36M, MBT 27M, AP 50M, EDC 98M, AGI 204M (from 400+M yesterday), DMC 87M, MPI 51M, TEL 61M, MEG 101M,

NO. OF TRADES: 17922

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