Longneck’s UCC’s (Useful Chit-Chats) Dec 4 ’09

After breaking out and above 3,100 on Wednesday, our PSEi has succumbed to profit taking and is down again today by another 29pts to 3,062 .

Coincidentally, Wednesday was also the day before this gigantic PX correction. PX’s down move south of about P4.00 costs around a cumulative 35pt drop over the last 2 days. Of course, we can also say that PX was also the one who held UP the market head above water. With PX correction still ongoing and not looking to stop as of yet, we may really have to look at other stocks/sectors to pull up this sagging index.

Personally, I have pegged PX at P14.25~P14.50 to stop its bleeding , so that is another P1.00 southward move, so where do we look for Northwinds? The Ayalas, ALI and AC should really pick up the slack for the index to sustain. AC has touched supports again near P290, and I heard from sources that BIG foreign fund selling may be coming to a tail-end, also the buy back of shares yesterday and today should be viewed as positive.

I called it wrongly for ALI to break-out, and looks like ALI will just consolidate for now, but I still expect a break-out before the end of this year.

The banks looked weak, but all are touching supports now at these levels, namely BDO, MBT, and PNB. MBT in particular broke out the other day of P47, but has since retraced back to its supports, and in my opinion could be bought at these levels. The race to P50 between BPI and MBT should be a now no-brainer victory for BPI.

NIhao(P5.40)  bounced off P4.85 low yesterday, and is now going into a critical week, Dec 11 (next Friday to be exact) wherein the 5:1 rights will now be sellable and tradeable. It will be interesting to see how this counter behaves, and it should continue to be very volatile next week.

ISM though forced close at 0.0725, looked to have broken out of 0.0675 already, this accompanied by heavy volume, next stop should be now at the 0.080~0.0825 level, technically speaking.

US employment report due out in the next hour or two, but not much heavyweight data after this. After this, it will be a tug of war I feel between fund managers who are willing to wind down their portfolio, and fund managers who are looking ahead into 2010, and are willing to dress up theirs.

What’s it gonna be?

Well, my daughter’s favorite pastime is Barbie dress-up… I sure hope she turns out to be a great fund manager someday. For now, I am still expecting Santa to dress up ours… Happy weekend everyone !!!

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